All Hits in Time?

Despite high hopes heading into the season, series such as “Spin City,” “Ink” and “Millennium” are drawing just so-so ratings, underscoring the difficulty in finding shows that become instant hits.

Instead, most of the 1996-97 season’s clear winners are returning series that have enjoyed audience growth in new time periods--programs such as “The Drew Carey Show” and “Touched by an Angel,” in their second and third years, respectively, or “The X-Files,” which has reached new rating highs in its fourth year.

Networks once counted on occasionally introducing an immediate hit, such as “The Cosby Show,” “Roseanne,” “Home Improvement,” “Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman,” “Walker, Texas Ranger” and “Frasier.” Bill Cosby’s 1980s sitcom almost single-handedly initiated NBC’s prime-time turnaround, lifting the network to first place.

In recent years, however, an increasingly expensive search for such breakthroughs has resulted mostly in frustration, with even big-name stars like Cosby, Ted Danson and Michael J. Fox providing no assurance of success. Indeed, several programs that have developed a loyal following feature actors who were virtually unknown at the time they premiered.

“When the viewer is being offered so many different opportunities from so many different sources, with 50 or 60 channels coming into most homes, it’s no wonder that things don’t break out of the box,” said Fox Entertainment President Peter Roth, who oversaw Fox’s production arm when “The X-Files” launched. “There seems to be more and more the phenomena of sophomore sensations emerging, as opposed to freshman hits.”

Last season only one new show, NBC’s “3rd Rock From the Sun,” captured an audience right away without the benefit of a cushy time period. NBC scored a year earlier with “ER” and “Friends,” which started strong and continued to build as the season progressed.

In a business not known for patience, enduring mediocre ratings while waiting for hits to develop gradually--as opposed to bolting out of the starting gate--presents various challenges, most notably recognizing shows that can blossom given time.

After a rocky start, “X-Files” is now Fox’s top-rated show, and both ABC’s “Drew Carey” and CBS’ “Touched by an Angel” survived modest first years to become key prime-time players.

“I always believed we had a hit,” said “Touched” executive producer Martha Williamson. “I wondered if anyone else would believe it or buy it.”

Executives say the public must be allowed to find programs and spread the word to friends.

Although networks canceled a handful of shows this season after three or fewer telecasts, programmers have exercised more patience with those series doing well enough to avoid summary execution but not to ensure their renewal.

Networks have canceled shows prematurely. NBC dropped “Baywatch,” for example, and the series went on to make a splash in syndication. On the flip side, the network waited three seasons for “The John Larroquette Show” to establish a following before finally throwing in the towel a few weeks ago.

Perhaps the ultimate example of patience rewarded is “Seinfeld,” now TV’s top-rated comedy. The oddball show staggered through its first few seasons--at one point being drubbed by “Home Improvement”--before taking off when NBC scheduled it after “Cheers” (which, by the way, didn’t become a Top 10 show until its fourth season, after “The Cosby Show” premiered).

Given the proliferation of viewing options during the last decade, some programmers maintain that expectations must be modified to reflect prime time’s new realities.

“I think the press in general is too quick to call something a ‘hit’ or a ‘miss,’ ” said NBC West Coast President Don Ohlmeyer. “People want to define hits by 1970s standards, and it’s a different business today. If a show goes in and improves a time slot, then it’s a successful show.”

By that measure, low-rated programs such as NBC’s “Profiler” and “The Pretender,” CBS’ “Moloney” and even the WB Network’s “The Jamie Foxx Show” can be seen as modest successes merely by holding their own in slots where their network had struggled.

Raw numbers, in fact, don’t always tell the story. NBC’s “Suddenly Susan” has consistently drawn huge ratings in the coveted half-hour between “Seinfeld” and “ER,” but there’s room for caution because the show has yet to prove its ability to stand alone.

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In similar fashion, NBC’s “Caroline in the City” was lightly regarded despite ranking as last year’s highest-rated new show in that mooring. As a result, though the show’s ratings have dropped since moving to Tuesdays this season, the comedy has surpassed expectations by holding its own against ABC’s “Spin City”--a matchup pitting Michael J. Fox against “Back to the Future” co-star Lea Thompson.

“I would consider any show in its first season fragile,” said Warner Bros. Television President Tony Jonas, whose company produces “Drew Carey” as well as “ER,” “Friends” and “Suddenly Susan.”

While “Spin City” hasn’t been the immediate hit many anticipated, the show, given ABC’s current ratings woes, is practically assured a second term. CBS similarly has acknowledged that its two most ballyhooed new properties, “Cosby” and “Ink,” have fallen short of the network’s lofty ratings projections, but insiders expect both to return next fall too.

Other promising newcomers include ABC’s “Sabrina, the Teenage Witch” and CBS’ “Early Edition,” while the networks brace themselves to see how a wave of midseason replacements will fare.

Various factors affect a network’s decision to retain a marginal series, ranging from intuition and research to the political clout of the star or studio attached. Fox’s Roth stressed that the show must be distinctive and possess a clear creative vision.

“If a show knows what it’s supposed to be, and realizes that well, that’s the most important criterion,” he said. “You have to believe in the show, first and foremost.”

According to Roth, “3rd Rock’s” appeal was no accident amid a sea of like-themed sitcoms, while Jonas calls Drew Carey a “unique voice” whose blue-collar sensibility stood out in a year crowded with “Friends” wannabes.

No hit may be more unlikely than “Touched by an Angel,” dismissed by many as a strong candidate to be the 1994-95 season’s first cancellation. Benched two months after its debut, the series returned for a two-week test in a different slot--between “Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman” and “Walker, Texas Ranger”--before earning a second year.

The show performed solidly last season and has taken flight this year, moving to Sundays and the slot once occupied by “Murder, She Wrote.”

“Clearly, if the show deserved to be a hit, this was going to be the ‘make or break’ moment,” creator Williamson said, adding that the program’s religious tone addressed an audience “that has been untapped and unserviced” in television.

The producer hopes that gradual success will help her lobby on behalf of “Promised Land,” her new drama starring Gerald McRaney, and expresses confidence the series will be renewed.

Still, Jonas noted that despite eventual rewards in cases like “Touched by an Angel” and “Drew Carey,” each situation is different and remains a struggle. “You’d like the networks to have a longer memory,” he said. “It doesn’t always work out that way.”