Immigrants Not Lured by Aid, Study Says

Despite the heated public debate linking welfare to illegal immigration, a study released Tuesday concludes that the availability of public benefits plays little role in motivating Mexican immigrants, the vast majority of whom never stay long enough to qualify for most social services.

The report by the San Francisco-based Public Policy Institute of California found that as many as half of all Mexican immigrants return home within two years, and less than one-third stay as long as 10 years.

Moreover, the researchers said, those who do remain over the long term tend to be legal immigrants with relatively high education levels and steady jobs--in short, those most likely to succeed and stay off the public dole.

Illegal immigrants, more needy than their lawful counterparts but barred from most public benefits, usually return to Mexico even sooner than those with legal status, the study found. And only 9.5% of illegal immigrants who were parents had their children in the United States, meaning that most of their offspring are largely ineligible for welfare.

“Social programs probably have little effect on migration decisions, especially for undocumented immigrants,” concluded the study, written by economist Belinda I. Reyes, a research fellow at the institute.

But others are critical of the study, saying that large numbers of Mexican-born residents, both legal and undocumented, receive Medi-Cal health services and other public benefits in California. Immigrants’ children also represent a significant number of public school students and of recipients of cash welfare grants and other aid, say groups seeking to reduce immigration levels.

“If ‘return migration’ was so prevalent, and public benefits were not a lure, why has California experienced an explosion in the costs of providing taxpayer-financed services to illegal immigrants?” asked Ron Low, a spokesman for Gov. Pete Wilson, who has often called welfare a magnet for illicit immigration.

While not disputing the back-and-forth nature of Mexican migration, critics asserted that the overwhelming number of poor people with little education arriving from south of the border clearly are a burden.

“Even if most go back, you’re talking about a very large number who remain permanently,” said Ira Mehlman of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, which seeks to reduce immigration levels. “They are contributing to rising costs and rising anxiety for a lot of people here.”

The new study is the latest to tackle the complex phenomenon of immigration from Mexico, which is by far the largest source of immigrants to the United States.

The accelerated arrival of Mexican nationals that began in the 1970s is now recognized as the largest historical mass migration to the United States from a single country, eclipsing previous waves from Italy, Ireland and elsewhere, said Jeffrey Passel, a demographer who directs immigration research at the Urban Institute in Washington. Most Mexican settlers arrived as illegal immigrants, Passel said, but many later obtained legal status.

According to the most recent government estimates, Passel said, about 6.7 million Mexican-born people live in the United States. The fast-expanding population of Mexican immigrants has dispersed nationwide, laying down roots from New York to Florida, Atlanta to Seattle, although California remains home to more than half of all Mexican immigrants.

The resulting dramatic shifts in the state’s demographic makeup have reverberated among policymakers and politicians, generating a wealth of studies examining immigration and its many ramifications.

The analysis by the Public Policy Institute of California is based on data gathered by the Mexican Migration Project, an independent research effort involving surveys of households from six key states in western Mexico that have long been the principal sources of immigrants to California.

The institute zeroed in on the oft-ignored phenomenon of return migration, a historical pattern among immigrants from Mexico, which shares an almost 2,000-mile border with the United States. Researchers have long sought to separate seasonal migrants, visitors and other temporary arrivals from permanent settlers, who have the greatest impact on their adopted country.

In finding that fewer than one-third of Mexican immigrants stay as long as 10 years, the study noted that the new federal welfare law bars immigrants from many public benefits until they have been working legally in the United States for 10 years. Thus, the study concluded, most immigrants from Mexico will never be eligible for such services.

The Public Policy Institute of California was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett, co-founder of Hewlett-Packard, the computer giant. The group backs research on a range of issues, including population growth, the economy, government and public finance.