‘Conspiracy Theory’ Prevails, Perhaps

Depending on whom you talk to, either Mel Gibson or Harrison Ford won the weekend battle of the grosses. But the box-office tracking firm Exhibitor Relations had Gibson in Warner Bros.’ “Conspiracy Theory” the victor by a slight $1.2 million margin.

The estimated tally: “Conspiracy Theory,” co-starring Julia Roberts in a film that drew mixed reviews, opened to $19.4 million; Sony/Columbia Pictures’ 3-week-old “Air Force One” with Ford apparently came in second at $18.2 million. Other competitors and Sony’s distribution chief Jeff Blake said Sunday that the weekend competition was a dead-heat, with rivals giving Warners only a slight edge. Both films target the same audience: moviegoers 24 and older.

“We think it’s way too close to call and this is a perfect instance where the best answer would be to wait until Monday [for official results],” Blake said. “But to be honest, we have so much good news on ‘Air Force One’ and so much good news on the company right now, we’re not dwelling on who’s No. 1 by a fraction of a point this weekend.”

As for Warner Bros., distribution chief Barry Reardon said he had heard comments from rivals about “Conspiracy Theory” and “Air Force One” being in a virtual tie, with the Warner Bros. film having only a slight $100,000 edge, putting both in the $18 million range. But Reardon begs to differ.

“ ‘Conspiracy Theory’ is like other films we’ve opened in August to the same audience: ‘The Fugitive,’ ‘Presumed Innocent’ and ‘A Time to Kill.’ The biggest turnout for this audience tends to be on Sunday, and since we only have firm numbers on Friday and Saturday, Sunday is an estimate,” he noted, basing his estimate on how other Warners films targeting the same audience typically perform on a Sunday. “I think we beat [Sony/Columbia] easily.”

Blake concedes “Conspiracy” did impact his studio’s “Air Force One,” since results fell 29% from the previous weekend. But, he added that it is the fastest R-rated movie to ever hit the $100-million mark--reaching the benchmark in 16 days of release for a total of $111 million.

“This company is in the middle of its biggest year and we expect it to be the biggest year ever for any studio,” Blake said--a complete reversal of Sony’s disastrous run last year. Ironically, the studio chief who approved most of the movies, Mark Canton, got the boot because of Sony’s terrible 1996 results. Canton just set up shop as an independent producer at Warner Bros. last week.

Blake notes that “Air Force One” gives Sony and its Columbia and TriStar Pictures studios three back-to-back $100-million movies--films which he expects to eventually gross a combined $500 million. The other two films: Columbia’s blockbuster “Men in Black,” which was in fifth for the weekend at $5.7 million (grossing $218.1 million in its six-week run); and TriStar’s “My Best Friend’s Wedding,” which fell to 11th place for the weekend with $2.2 million. It has grossed about $113.8 million in eight weeks.

“No one has ever had a $500-million summer,” Blake says. “Since Memorial Day weekend, we have grossed $493 million and we expect to hit $500 million on our summer films by Wednesday. Since the beginning of the year, our films have grossed $915 million and we expect $1 billion by Labor Day. Disney hit $1 billion by Thanksgiving last year.

“They wound up having the biggest year ever at $1.2 billion. There’s no question we’ll pass them,” he said, counting on coming releases that including Oliver Stone’s “U-Turn” (Oct. 3), “Seven Years in Tibet” starring Brad Pitt (Oct. 8) and “Starship Troopers” (Nov. 7).

Meanwhile, “Conspiracy Theory” wasn’t Warners’ only film to open over the weekend. But, “Free Willy 3: The Rescue” bombed at only $1 million. All of the “Free Willy” films tend to perform well in video rentals, Reardon and rivals said.

As for others in the weekend’s top 10: “Spawn” was third at $9.1 million, accumulating $37.9 million in two weeks; “George of the Jungle” was fourth with $6.3 million and $75.9 million in four weeks; “Picture Perfect” was sixth at $5 million and $17.5 million in two weeks; “Contact” was seventh at $4.4 million and $83.3 million in five weeks; the Gramercy Pictures newcomer “How to Be a Player” was eighth at $4.1 million; “Air Bud” was ninth at $3.5 million and $11.4 million in two weeks; and “Nothing to Lose” pulled up 10th at $2.8 million with $37.3 million in four weeks.