Most Are Worse-Case Scenarios

It might seem like a slow first half of the season around here, with the Lakers crawling around and the Clippers doing their usual unraveling number.

But that’s just because you’ve been spoiled, and never the way you had been the last two seasons, when the Lakers went from champions to dynasts and even the Clippers became interesting.

Nor do either of the local teams have much in the way of problems, in the usual sense of the word.

Everywhere else, problems are not being good enough ... or not having any way to get better ... or finishing out of the playoffs with a $40-million luxury-tax tab coming on top of a $90-million payroll ... or being in a small market where resources are meager ... or in a frigid city where no one wants to go ... or, like the Bucks and Timberwolves, in a small and frigid city.

Besides living in our little paradise, even if it has jammed freeways and high housing prices, the Lakers have Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant, still the game’s mightiest tandem in a non-peak season. If it turns out they don’t have enough help, management can go out and get more in the summer, which it probably will, in any case.

The Clippers’ woes, of course, are self-inflicted. Donald T. Sterling could still turn the season around by telling the agents for Elton Brand, Michael Olowokandi and Andre Miller there has been a horrible misunderstanding (that’s true, it’s his), he realizes how many years he has invested in their clients and he’ll go all-out to sign them this summer.

Of course, this has no chance of happening.

On the other hand, the Clippers could still (conceivably) keep most of their players, so the bad old days aren’t back (yet).

Let’s just say there are lots of teams that would be happy to exchange problems with the Clippers.

Let’s start from the bottom, with the ones so low, they’re hoping for a savior who’s now in high school.

*

Starting Over

(and Over, and Over)

Cleveland -- With Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ricky Davis and DaJuan Wagner, the Cavaliers have some help for LeBron James. Now all they have to do is luck into him in the lottery. Even for the team with the worst record, that’s only a 29% chance.

Denver -- With a high pick and cap space, the Nuggets hope their old ties to Olowokandi -- assistant general manager Jeff Weltman helped bring him to the Clippers -- puts them in the game. However, Gary Payton just issued what may be star policy for small-market teams starting from scratch, announcing he has zippo interest in going there.

Miami -- Pat Riley, who never had to rebuild, is finding it’s as much fun as he thought. He still has to unload Brian Grant or Eddie Jones to get an Olowokandi-size slot and the question remains whether today’s stars will sign up for his taskmaster routine.

Toronto -- The Raptors’ franchise player, Vince Carter, used to have a little problem with expectations but now it’s a big one, and he has a bad knee too.

Chicago -- Tyson Chandler will have to be a star, since Eddy Curry looks more like Baby Huey than Baby Shaq. Meanwhile, GM Jerry Krause lets the young roster bubble so unhappily, the father of No. 1 pick Jay Williams said his son, who has been there for only 10 weeks, wanted to be traded.

New York -- The Knicks are so out of it, they don’t even know they should be tanking. More interested in cash flow, they patch on the fly with veterans like Antonio McDyess, which was a challenge for Dave Checketts, who was a lot slicker than current president and son of the corporate boss, James Dolan.

Atlanta -- Good place for an expansion team. Oh, they’ve got a team? Attendance is so low and management so lame, it’s hard to remember they’re in the league.

Milwaukee -- Talk about getting a big contract and blowing up. No, not the players, Coach George Karl. East finalists in 2001, No. 9 in the East in 2002, headed lower now. Owner Herb Kohl, who gave Karl that two-year, $14-million extension that runs through next season, says he wants to sell. He means the team, not Karl.

Been Down So Long,

This Looks Like Up to Them

New Jersey -- The Nets can play, assuming they’re not up against one of those big Western teams. Unfortunately, they can’t draw. Coach Byron Scott said it was OK for the 14,000 (he wishes) who come every night to boo in their recent 36-point loss to the Kings, but he didn’t want to hear anything from those 6,000 other people who were there. On the bright side, the 6,000 won’t be back soon and the place will be quiet again.

Of course, if they lose Jason Kidd, who can be a free agent this summer, this will seem like the good old days.

Phoenix -- The Suns made beaucoup mistakes -- Stephon Marbury, Penny Hardaway, Tom Gugliotta -- but stealing Amare Stoudemire with a No. 10 pick makes up for a lot.

Washington -- Good news is, the Wizards might make the playoffs. Bad news is, they’d better enjoy it because Michael Jordan is leaving and they hate their best prospect, Kwame Brown. Brown is inconsistent, goes squealing to the media and gets little slack, since this program is about winning today with MJ, rather than rebuilding.

Golden State -- Coach Eric Musselman woke the Warriors from a seven-year slumber, but they keep blowing big decisions, such as last spring when they took Mike Dunleavy Jr. at No. 3. The really bad news is, they’re not good enough to make the playoffs in the West, even if they try hard.

Memphis -- Humble as they are, the Grizzlies have made such improvement under forgotten dinosaur Hubie Brown, other teams want to know where they can find a retired authoritarian to kick their young players’ rear ends.

*

Clowns to Left, Jokers to

Right: Stuck in the Middle

Portland -- The little miscreants are entitled to their everyone’s-against-us number because everyone really is against them. Mo Cheeks is surprising everyone -- again -- but the Trail Blazers are in the West, where being good isn’t good enough and not being big enough is fatal.

With declining attendance and their $105-million payroll, they’re looking at a $55-million luxury-tax tab, leading to speculation they might approach $100 million in losses. Even Paul “Microsoft” Allen would notice that.

Philadelphia -- The miracle that bound Larry Brown and Allen Iverson, the movable object and the resistible force, is being tested anew. What follows may not be pretty.

Boston -- After years of uninterested absentee ownership, the new guys vow to spend whatever it takes. Unfortunately, the Celtics are capped forever. Like the Lakers, they have two stars and 10 soldiers. Unfortunately for the Celtics, their stars are Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker.

New Orleans -- This is the honeymoon? For two years, the Hornets underachieved before sparse crowds in Charlotte. Now they’re underachieving before medium-sized crowds in the Big Easy.

Seattle -- Nate McMillan says he has “two free-agent point guards who want minutes” and “five big men who all play with a similar style. Until we make some moves, this is what we’re going to have to work with.” In other words, Payton is out of there, probably in a sign-and-trade this summer.

Orlando -- As usual, the Grant Hill project is in trouble and the Magic is emotionally exhausted. Strapped for size, the Magic starts Shawn Kemp, who actually just lost 30 pounds, although it left him so weak, his production fell off sharply.

Minnesota -- Kevin Garnett, leading the Timberwolves in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and minutes, needed help. However, with Terrell Brandon out of the picture and Wally Szczerbiak trying to tiptoe back into it, he gets so little, there’s fear he’ll walk when his contract is up in ’04.

Utah -- The Jazz is still staving off the inevitable but doesn’t have any more title chases left. With the contracts of Karl Malone and John Stockton running out, impending change is taking a toll on this rock-solid franchise, where Jerry Sloan always seems mad at Mailman.

Detroit -- Rick Carlisle is doing an amazing job but the Pistons need a star, as opposed to Richard Hamilton, and a big guy, as opposed to 6-8 center Ben Wallace. With a high pick (the Grizzlies’ this spring, unless it’s No. 1) and $5 million under the cap, they still have a chance to build on this.

*

Feelin’ All Right

Sacramento -- Only thing left the Kings haven’t shown they can do: beat the Lakers when it counts.

Dallas -- If any team can shoot its way to a title, this is it.

San Antonio -- Still in transition but with the pieces the Spurs have in place, and $10 million worth of cap room, things should work out. They’re the favorites to land whichever free agent they decide on, Kidd or Olowokandi.

Indiana -- The Pacers will have to learn the usual painful lessons, such as last spring’s when they ran their mouths before the Nets ran them off. But they’re loaded with such blue-chip kids as Jermaine O’Neal, Ron Artest, Al Harrington and Jonathan Bender.

It might seem like a slow first half of the season around here, with the Lakers crawling around and the Clippers doing their usual unraveling number.

But that’s just because you’ve been spoiled, and never the way you had been the last two seasons, when the Lakers went from champions to dynasts and even the Clippers became interesting.

Nor do either of the local teams have much in the way of problems, in the usual sense of the word.

Everywhere else, problems are not being good enough ... or not having any way to get better ... or finishing out of the playoffs with a $40-million luxury-tax tab coming on top of a $90-mil payroll

Besides living in our little paradise, even if it has jammed freeways and high housing prices, the Lakers have Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant, still the game’s mightiest tandem in a non-peak season. If it turns out they don’t have enough help, management can go out and get more in the summer, which it probably will, in any case.

The Clippers’ woes, of course, are self-inflicted. Donald T. Sterling could still turn the season around by telling the agents for Elton Brand, Michael Olowokandi and Andre Miller there has been a horrible misunderstanding (that’s true, it’s his), he realizes how many years he has invested in their clients and he’ll go all-out to sign them this summer.

Of course, this has no chance of happening.

On the other hand, the Clippers could still (conceivably) keep most of their players, so the bad old days aren’t back (yet).

Let’s just say there are lots of teams that would be happy to exchange problems with the Clippers.

Let’s start from the bottom, with the ones so low, they’re hoping for a savior who’s now in high school.

Starting Over

(and Over, and Over)

Cleveland -- With Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ricky Davis and DaJuan Wagner, they’ve got some help for LeBron James. Now all they have to do is luck into him in the lottery. Even for the team with the worst record, that’s only a 29% chance.

Denver -- With a high pick and cap space, they hope their old ties to Olowokandi -- assistant general manager Jeff Weltman helped bring him to the Clippers -- puts them in the game. However, Gary Payton just issued what may be star policy for small-market teams starting from scratch, announcing he has zippo interest in going there.

Miami -- Pat Riley, who never had to rebuild, is finding it’s as much fun as he thought. He still has to unload Brian Grant or Eddie Jones to get an Olowokandi-size slot and the question remains whether today’s stars will sign up for his taskmaster routine.

Toronto -- The Raptors’ franchise player, Vince Carter, used to have a little problem with expectations but now it’s a big one, and he has a bad knee too.

Chicago -- Tyson Chandler will have to be a star, since Eddy Curry looks more like Baby Huey than Baby Shaq. Meanwhile, GM Jerry Krause lets the young roster bubble so unhappily, the father of No. 1 pick Jay Williams said his son, who has been there for only 10 weeks, wanted to be traded.

New York -- The Knicks are so out of it, they don’t even know they should be tanking. More interested in cash flow, they patch on the fly with veterans like Antonio McDyess, which was a challenge for Dave Checketts, who was a lot slicker than current president and son of the corporate boss, James Dolan.

Atlanta -- Good place for an expansion team. Oh, they’ve got a team? Attendance is so low and management so lame, it’s hard to remember they’re in the league.

Milwaukee -- Talk about getting a big contract and blowing up. No, not the players, Coach George Karl. East finalists in 2001, No. 9 in the East in 2002, headed lower now. Owner Herb Kohl, who gave Karl that two-year, $14-million extension that runs through next season, says he wants to sell. He means the team, not Karl.

Been Down So Long,

This Looks Like Up to Them

New Jersey -- The Nets can play, assuming they’re not up against one of those big Western teams. Unfortunately, they can’t draw. Coach Byron Scott said it was OK for the 14,000 (he wishes) who come every night to boo in their recent 36-point loss to the Kings, but he didn’t want to hear anything from those 6,000 other people who were there. On the bright side, the 6,000 won’t be back soon and the place will be quiet again.

Of course, if they lose Jason Kidd, who can be a free agent this summer, this will seem like the good, old days.

Phoenix -- The Suns made beaucoup mistakes -- Stephon Marbury, Penny Hardaway, Tom Gugliotta -- but stealing Amare Stoudemire with a No. 10 pick makes up for a lot.

Washington -- Good news is, the Wizards might make the playoffs. Bad news is, they’d better enjoy it because Michael Jordan is leaving and they hate their best prospect, Kwame Brown. Brown is inconsistent, goes squealing to the press and gets little slack, since this program is about winning today with MJ, rather than rebuilding.

Golden State -- Coach Eric Musselman woke them from a seven-year slumber but they keep blowing big decisions, such as last spring when they took Mike Dunleavy Jr. at No. 3. The really bad news is, they’re not good enough to make the playoffs in the West, even if they try hard.

Memphis -- Humble as they are, the Grizzlies have made such improvement under forgotten dinosaur Hubie Brown, other teams want to know where they can find a retired authoritarian to kick their young players’ rear ends.

Clowns to Left, Jokers to

Right: Stuck in the Middle

Portland -- The little miscreants are entitled to their everyone’s-against-us number because everyone really is against them. Mo Cheeks is surprising everyone -- again -- but they’re in the West, where being good isn’t good enough and not being big enough is fatal.

With declining attendance and their $105-million payroll, they’re looking at a $55-million luxury-tax tab, leading to speculation they might approach $100 million in losses. Even Paul “Microsoft” Allen would notice that.

Philadelphia -- The miracle that bound Larry Brown and Allen Iverson, the movable object and the resistible force, is being tested anew. What follows may not be pretty.

Boston -- After years of uninterested absentee ownership, the new guys vow to spend whatever it takes. Unfortunately, they’re capped forever. Like the Lakers, they have two stars and 10 soldiers. Unfortunately for the Celtics, their stars are Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker.

New Orleans -- This is the honeymoon? For two years, the Hornets underachieved before sparse crowds in Charlotte. Now they’re underachieving before medium-sized crowds in the Big Easy.

Seattle -- Nate McMillan says he has “two free-agent point guards who want minutes” and “five big men who all play with a similar style. Until we make some moves, this is what we’re going to have to work with.” In other words, Payton is out of there, probably in a sign-and-trade this summer.

Orlando -- As usual, the Grant Hill project is in trouble and the Magic is emotionally exhausted. Strapped for size, the Magic starts Shawn Kemp, who actually just lost 30 pounds, although it left him so weak, his production fell off sharply.

Minnesota -- Kevin Garnett, leading them in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and minutes, needed help. However, with Terrell Brandon out of the picture and Wally Szczerbiak trying to tiptoe back into it, he gets so little, there’s fear he’ll walk when his contract is up in ’04.

Utah -- The Jazz is still staving off the inevitable but doesn’t have any more title chases left. With the contracts of Karl Malone and John Stockton running out, impending change is taking a toll on this rock-solid franchise, where Jerry Sloan always seems mad at Mailman.

Detroit -- Rick Carlisle is doing an amazing job but the Pistons need a star, as opposed to Richard Hamilton, and a big guy, as opposed to 6-8 center Ben Wallace. With a high pick (the Grizzlies’ this spring, unless it’s No. 1) and $5 million under the cap, they still have a chance to build on this.

Feelin’ All Right

Sacramento -- Only thing left the Kings haven’t shown they can do: beat the Lakers when it counts.

Dallas -- If any team can shoot its way to a title, this is it.

San Antonio -- Still in transition but with the pieces the Spurs have in place, and $10 million worth of cap room, things should work out. They’re the favorites to land whichever free agent they decide on, Kidd or Olowokandi.

Indiana -- The Pacers will have to learn the usual painful lessons, like last spring’s when they ran their mouths before the Nets ran them off. But they’re loaded with such blue-chip kids as Jermaine O’Neal, Ron Artest, Al Harrington and Jonathan Bender.

Houston -- Should become an elite team when Yao Ming gets some experience, and the ball.