Emmys 2013: Predicting movie/miniseries category and its snubs

Emmy nominations arrive Thursday morning. Early. To save you from having to wake up at 5:35 a.m. PDT, we’re sweeping through the high-profile categories one last time. We called the comedy races and the drama nominees. Now it’s time to look at the titles and big-name actors competing for the movie/miniseries Emmys.

MOVIE/MINISERIES

Surprise: Emmy believes! Well, in ratings, at least. “The Bible” makes it in.

Snub: We’re betting (hoping?) that voters have the good sense to ignore “Phil Spector,” David Mamet’s whitewashed and dramatically inert account of the events leading to the record producer’s trial for the murder of Lana Clarkson.

FULL COVERAGE: Emmys 2013

The nominees: “Behind the Candelabra,” “Top of the Lake,” “American Horror Story: Asylum,” “Political Animals,” “Parade’s End,” “The Bible”

MOVIE/MINISERIES ACTOR

Surprise: That somebody who isn’t now or wasn’t once an A-list movie star wins a nomination?

Snub: Kenneth Branagh received strong reviews for PBS’ “Wallander” but the three-episode series’ deliberate pacing tried some viewers’ patience.

The nominees: Michael Douglas, “Behind the Candelabra”; Al Pacino, “Phil Spector”; Benedict Cumberbatch, “Parade’s End”; Matt Damon, “Behind the Candelabra”; Toby Jones, “The Girl”

MOVIE/MINISERIES ACTRESS

Surprise: Not nominated last year for comedy series, Showtime pulls an end-run and broadcasts “The Big C” as four, one-hour episodes, almost ensuring a nod for star Laura Linney in a category she has won twice in her career.

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Snub: Rebecca Hall (“Parade’s End”), Sienna Miller (“The Girl”) and Brenda Blethyn and Hilary Swank (“Mary and Martha”) could be among the well-known names passed over.

The nominees: Elisabeth Moss, “Top of the Lake”; Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Asylum”; Helen Mirren, “Phil Spector”; Sigourney Weaver, “Political Animals”; Laura Linney, “The Big C: Hereafter”

MOVIE/MINISERIES SUPPORTING ACTOR

Surprise: Jeffrey Tambor might well join Elisabeth Moss as a double nominee if he wins a nod for “Phil Spector” to go along with his turn as the Bluth family patriarch in “Arrested Development.”

Snub: Dan Aykroyd was fine as Liberace’s sourpuss manager in “Behind the Candelabra.” But freaky beats no-nonsense every day of the week with voters, so he’ll probably have to applaud castmate Rob Lowe’s alien-faced turn in the campy movie.

The nominees: Peter Mullan, “Top of the Lake”; James Cromwell, “American Horror Story: Asylum”; Jeffrey Tambor, “Phil Spector”; Zachary Quinto, “American Horror Story: Asylum”; Rob Lowe, “Behind the Candelabra”

TIMELINE: Emmy winners through the years

MOVIE/MINISERIES SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Surprise: Lifetime movies aren’t typically Emmy powerhouses, but Alfre Woodard’s funny turn as the cranky Ouiser in “Steel Magnolias” might find a place at the table.

Snub: Imelda Staunton’s portrayal of Alma Hitchcock in “The Girl” will probably fall just short of making the list.

The nominees: Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Asylum”; Holly Hunter, “Top of the Lake”; Alfre Woodard, “Steel Magnolias”; Ellen Burstyn, “Political Animals”; Lily Rabe, “American Horror Story: Asylum”

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Emmys 2013: Contender video interviews

Emmys 2013: Predicting comedy’s surprises, snubs and winners

Emmys 2013: Predicting drama’s surprises, snubs and winners