Derek Jeter may reach 3,000 hits -- but is he a clutch hitter?

As Derek Jeter inches ever-closer to 3,000 hits, sports commenters are heaping praise on the Yankee shortstop who has, over the years, earned the nickname Captain Clutch for his ability to hit that winning run when the bases are loaded and it’s all on the line.

But is there really such a thing as a clutch hitter? One student at the University of Pennsylvania said the statistics did indeed bear the theory out, if a clutch hitter was defined as a batter who hits better at more significant points in the game and if sacrifice flys were included in the analysis.

But other studies seem to disprove the notion. A 2007 story for the Association for Psychological Science’s monthly magazine Observer explored the research, pointing out that Harvard physicist Ed Purcell did a statistical analysis and found that “all streaks and slumps except for Joe DiMaggio’s remarkable 56-game hit streak fall within what could be expected by chance.”

Basically -- Joe DiMaggio aside -- if it looks like a player is clutch, it’s probably because your sample size of hits is too small. If he stays in the game long enough, it’s likely he’ll have extended and inexplicable slumps as well.

“I have always suspected that it is a matter of luck, not ‘clutch-hitting’, if a particular player gets more than his share of dramatic hits,” statistician Richard Cramer wrote in a 1977 article for the Baseball Research Journal.

But the notion of clutch hitting isn’t completely out with some researchers, the Observer story points out -- some researchers believe that certain hitters know how to relax in high-pressure situations rather than overthink a situation and disrupt the otherwise streamlined physiological process of hitting a ball.

It’s also easier to win when you already feel like you’re on a roll: One cited study showed that professional bowlers are “more likely to bowl a strike after a series of strikes than they are to bowl a strike after a series of nonstrikes.”

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