David Poland

Winners:

"Pirates" will own another summer because it should be a slam bang conclusion, because it has a four-day opening weekend, which could break all records, and "Spider-Man 3" and "Transformers" don't seem good enough to push Captain Jack.

Losers:

"Flop" may be unfair to "The Simpsons," but I think there is a real chance that expectations of a huge success will not be met, much in the way "The X-Files" movie didn't bomb outright, but came up well short of being a phenom.

Shockers:

I think the movie that has the best chance to surprise is "Hairspray." New Line needs to sell it as a cousin of "Grease," not a Travolta drag show and it seems they get that. Think "Ugly Betty: The Musical" with an infectious, nostalgic score.

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