Sam Farmer’s NFL Week 16 picks

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Glantz-Culver (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 10-6 (.625); season 146-78 (.652). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 9-5-2 (.643); season 104-105-15 (.498).

Denver (8-6)

at Buffalo (5-9)

Saturday, 10 a.m.

Broncos 18, Bills 16

TV: None. DirecTV: 704.

Line: Broncos by 3. O/U: 41.

The Bills have lost seven in a row to drop out of playoff contention, and Ryan Fitzpatrick has had 12 picks over that span. Cameras will be on Tim Tebow, but Denver’s defense wins here.

Miami (5-9)

at New England (11-3)

Saturday, 10 a.m.

Patriots 35, Dolphins 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Patriots by 9. O/U: 48.

At Foxborough in late December? The Patriots don’t lose many of these. The Dolphins could make things interesting with their defense, although Tom Brady is difficult to fool.

Cleveland (4-10)

at Baltimore (10-4)

Saturday, 10 a.m.

Ravens 24, Browns 9

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Ravens by 13. O/U: 38.

Emboldened by the 49ers beating Pittsburgh, the Ravens will kick it into high gear at home. The Browns can be tough at times, but Baltimore rediscovers its pass rush.

Jacksonville (4-10)

at Tennessee (7-7)

Saturday, 10 a.m.

Titans 27, Jaguars 13

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Titans by 7. O/U: 40.

Matters have changed quite a bit since the Jaguars beat the Titans by two in their opener. Tennessee has some incentive, and Jacksonville can’t move the ball with any consistency.

Oakland (7-7)

at Kansas City (6-8)

Saturday, 10 a.m.

Chiefs 30, Raiders 28

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Chiefs by 2. O/U: 42.

An emotional letdown after beating Green Bay would be natural for the Chiefs, though that’s unlikely against the Raiders. Romeo Crennel makes a case for the full-time job.

N.Y. Giants (7-7)

at N.Y. Jets (8-6)

Saturday, 10 a.m.

Jets 28, Giants 27

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Jets by 3. O/U: 45.

It’s not often that a Giants-Jets game means this much. Both teams are desperate for a win to keep hopes alive. In this case, the pass-happy Giants are too one-dimensional.

Minnesota (2-12)

at Washington (5-9)

Saturday, 10 a.m.

Redskins 28, Vikings 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Redskins by 6. O/U: 44.

Both of these teams have looked surprisingly tough at times even though the records don’t reflect it. The Redskins win a shootout at home this time.

Tampa Bay (4-10)

at Carolina (5-9)

Saturday, 10 a.m.

Panthers 30, Buccaneers 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Panthers by 7. O/U: 47.

The Buccaneers have lost eight in a row and are playing out the string. The Panthers, meanwhile, have shown real promise of turning things around with Cam Newton.

Arizona (7-7)

at Cincinnati (8-6)

Saturday, 10 a.m.

Cardinals 23, Bengals 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Bengals by 4. O/U: 40.

The Cardinals have quietly rounded into a very tough team, whether it’s John Skelton or Kevin Kolb at quarterback. The Bengals are better on the road than at home.

St. Louis (2-12)

at Pittsburgh (10-4)

Saturday, 10 a.m.

Steelers 31, Rams 7

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Off the board. O/U: Off the board.

The Steelers are smarting from their trip to San Francisco. They aren’t going to let a team roll in and spoil their season, least of all the two-win Rams. This won’t be close.

San Diego (7-7)

at Detroit (9-5)

Saturday, 1 p.m.

Chargers 35, Lions 31

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Lions by 2. O/U: 52.

Over the last four games, Philip Rivers has eight touchdowns and no interceptions. If the Chargers can protect him as well here, they will keep their playoff hopes alive.

Philadelphia (6-8)

at Dallas (8-6)

Saturday, 1:15 p.m.

Eagles 30, Cowboys 27

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Cowboys by 1. O/U: 50.

The Eagles have won their last five road games within the division, and they have ramped up the pass rush in recent weeks. Containing Michael Vick will be the key, of course.

San Francisco (11-3)

at Seattle (7-7)

Saturday, 1:15 p.m.

Seahawks 17, 49ers 15

TV: None. DirecTV: 716.

Line: 49ers by 2. O/U: 38.

This is just the kind of game the surging Seahawks can win, especially with San Francisco coming off an emotional drubbing of Pittsburgh. Jim Harbaugh vs. Pete Carroll is always interesting.

Chicago (7-7)

at Green Bay (13-1)

Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

Packers 35, Bears 13

TV: Channel 4

Line: Packers by 13. O/U: 44.

Recent history shows that the Packers rebound well after laying eggs. The bigger question here is, can they shore up holes on their offensive line to make a strong playoff run?

Atlanta (9-5)

at New Orleans (11-3)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Saints 38, Falcons 28

TV: ESPN

Line: Saints by 6. O/U: 53.

Drew Brees has thrown for more than 300 yards in four of his last five games against the Falcons. He knows how to spread the ball around too, and that helps.