Racing! Another handicapping lesson from Rob Henie

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get ready for big days at Arlington Park and Prairie Meadows.

Let’s not waste any time, I’m getting sleepy with the late Del Mar start, and get right to the good stuff.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the eighth race at Del Mar. It’s yours, Rob.

“The eighth race from Bing’s place, a track which opened in 1937, still using the original grandstand until 1992, with half of the new grandstand completed in time for 1993, and the other half finished prior to the 1994 season. It’s difficult to believe we’ve been enjoying the new grandstand for 26 years? This race is a $16,000 claimer at six furlongs. Top selection is BURN ME TWICE (#6). We often try to identify improving health, after all, good health opens the door to good efforts, always a good place to start in the handicapping process, and this one strings races back to back for the first time in a year. Rather than work him since that last race, Bill Spawr is electing to run him right back, in just over three weeks, a moral victory in itself for a horse who’s been brittle with regard to making it to the afternoon races. The jockey is Agapito Delgadillo, a guy who’s gonna ride forever, seriously, not sure of his age, but I can tell you this, I remember him riding at Aqua Caliente when I was a young teenager in the early 80’s, true story. Expecting a step forward today, and whenever you’re looking at races in the $10,000 to $16,000 range, a good place to start the handicapping process, is trying to decipher a healthy pattern. Very little in this race that we can condone outside of the top choice, let’s simply move along. BOW AND ARROW (#4) is cheap, but as we often write, we’ll take a sharp cheap runner facing regressing horses on the drop, any day of the week. Fits right back in sharp form at the moment.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: Ruben Fuentes is aboard the second choice, and three of his four wins have come over this 5 ½ furlong distance.

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 6-4

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Negative Notes:

“3 Baby Bear’s Soup - Honestly, it just doesn’t appear David Jacobson has a handle on many of his runners, dropping, moving ‘em in distance, all over the place.

“TOP PICK: BURN ME TWICE (#6 7-2 Delgadillo)

“SECOND CHOICE: BOW AND ARROW (#4 5-1 Fuentes)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Mark your calendar

Can you have too much of Rob Henie? Well, he will be Frank Scatoni’s guest at the Del Mar handicapping session a week from Sunday. The seminars are from 12:45 p.m. until 1:30 p.m. at the Seaside Terrace near the head of the stretch. If you tell him you read him in our newsletter, you’ll get, well, you won’t get anything. But, it would be a good thing to do.

Del Mar review

The center stage on Friday night was occupied by Cal-bred fillies and mares going a mile on the turf in the $150,000 Solana Beach Stakes. Cordiality, the favorite, showed why she was much the best finding a 2 ¼-length win.

Cordiality paid $4.60, $3.00 and $2.80 for trainer Mark Glatt and jockey Tyler Baze. Queen Bee to You was second and Cheekaboo finished third.

“She just gives you confidence getting on her,” Baze said. “She’s relaxed, but she’s serious. The older she’s gotten, [5 years old] the better she’s gotten. She’s a sweetheart.”

Glatt was equally praising his mare.

“It was a great trip and she’s just getting good,” Glatt said. “She ran a respectable finish in a Grade III [third in the Wilshire Stakes] last time against open company. She’s a diamond and they don’t come around very often. It’s hard to claim a horse [for $32,000] that ends up being a stakes horse. We all know it doesn’t happen very often, but it happens. We were just the fortunate ones to have gotten her.”

Del Mar preview

Del Mar has a 10-race Saturday card starting at the usual 2 p.m. Once again, because of a short field, it has moved its feature up in the program, this time to the third race at about 3 p.m. But there are three allowance/optional claimers later in the card making it decent for a Saturday.

The feature is the Grade 2 $200,000 Best Pal Stakes for 2-year-olds going six furlongs. Three of the five horses are making their second start, all having won their first. But only Instagrand won by 10 ½ lengths at Los Alamitos, which is why Russ Hudak made him the 1-2 morning-line favorite. Jerry Hollendorfer is the trainer with Drayden Van Dyke as the jockey.

Owning, for Simon Callaghan and Mario Gutierrez, won his last race by 2 ½ at Los Alamitos and is the second favorite at 5-2. Mason Dixon is the other undefeated colt, winning at Del Mar by ¾ of a length. Doug O’Neill is trainer with Flavien Prat the jockey. The other two horses in the race are Sparky Ville (10-1) and Synthesis (15-1).

There are four turf races on the card.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 7, 5, 8, 7, 9, 10, 9, 11, 10.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

10:58 Woodbine: $100,000 Duchess Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Win the War (1-1)

11:07 Saratoga: Grade 2 $200,000 Adirondack Stakes, fillies 2-years-old, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Lyrical Lady (6-5)

12:38 Woodbine: $100,000 Flaming Page Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Lottie (2-1)

1:17 Canterbury: $100,000 Minnesota Oaks, Minn-bred fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile and 70 yards. Favorite: Simran (3-1)

1:47 Canterbury: $100,000 Minnesota Derby, Minn-bred 3-year-olds, 1mile and 70 yards. Favorite: Mr. Jagermeister (4-5)

1:47 Woodbine: $100,000 Victoriana Stakes, Ont-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Niigon’s Eclipse (9-5)

2:02 Saratoga: Grade 1 $500,000 Fourstardave Handicap, 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Weekend Hideaway (3-5)

2:08 Arlington: $100,000 Bruce D. Memorial Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile. Favorite: The Tabulator (2-1)

2:48 Arlington: Grade 1 $400,000 Secretariat Stakes, 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Favorite: Analyze It (2-1)

3:03 Del Mar: Grade 2 $200,000 Best Pal Stakes, 2-year-olds, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Instagrand (2-1)

3:18 Saratoga: $100,000 Lure Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: You’re to Blame (1-1)

3:25 Arlington: Grade 1 $600,000 Beverly D., fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 3/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Sister Charlie (9-5)

4:08 Arlington: Grade 1 $1 million Arlington Million, 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Favorite: Oscar Performance (3-1)

4:51 Arlington: Grade 3 $100,000 Pucker Up Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Beyond Blame (3-1)

5:06 Prairie Meadows: $100,000 Iowa Breeders’ Oaks, Iowa-bred fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile and 70 yards. Favorite: Sequence of Events (7-2)

6:02 Prairie Meadows: $100,000 Iowa Breeders’ Derby, Iowa-bred 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Tin Badge (6-5)

6:58 Prairie Meadows: $100,000 Governor Terry E. Branstad Stakes, Iowa-breds 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: No Holds Barred (2-1)

7:26 Prairie Meadows: $100,000 Donna Reed Stakes, Iowa-breds 4 and up, 1 mile and 70 yards. Favorite: Mywomanfromtokyo (7-5)

Bob Ike’s DMR pick of the day

FIFTH RACE: No. 2 Meal Ticket (3-1)

Sharp filly from the Matt Chew should have made it three straight wins but encountered traffic trouble into the far turn and was shuffled back to last before finishing furiously late when an unlucky second. Look for her to get back on the winning track vs. this allowance/optional claiming field assuming she gets a clear run.

Friday’s result: Cordiality ran a smart race rallying in the stretch to win. Others saw the value in him, so his payoff was $4.60.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

FOURTH RACE: No. 3 Masters (3-1)

He easily outran his 13-1 odds in nice runnerup debut when moving well during the final 1/16 after coming away in sluggish style while getting bumped. He has more upside than the two class-dropping favorites in Legally Hott and Card Trix, who have both regressed in recent outings. Masters is always nicely drawn between two 15-1 morning-line foes who showed little in their debuts.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

AUNT LUBIE stalked off the rail then between horses, bid three deep on the backstretch and second turn, took a short lead into the stretch, battled outside the runner-up under urging and inched away late. CONVINCE came off the rail into the first turn, stalked then bid between horses on the backstretch and second turn, briefly put a head in front nearing the stretch, fought back a bit off the rail in the final furlong, could not match the winner late but was clearly second best. NOW BLESSED sped to the early lead, angled in on the first turn and set the pace inside, dueled along the rail on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and held third. GRECIAN FORT a bit washy at the gate, angled in and saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch and lacked a rally. PULPACHEEKS four wide on the first turn, stalked outside then off the rail, dropped back and angled in on the second turn, gave way readily and was eased in the drive.

STOP THE VIOLENCE went up inside to duel for the lead, put a head in front on the turn, came a bit off the rail and kicked clear in the stretch and proved best under a left handed crack of the whip and a vigorous hand ride. CANDYMAN GARRET had good early speed and dueled between horses then outside the winner on the turn and into the stretch, could not match that one in the final furlong but held second. OLD INDIAN TRICK pressed the pace three deep between horses then stalked on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and was edged for the place. SARATOGA MORNING stalked outside a rival then between foes on the turn, was with a foe past midstretch then angled in late and was edged for third inside. ZAPANA'S GAME prompted the pace four wide then stalked three deep on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and was outfinished for a minor award. ISEE IT IN HISEYES saved ground stalking the pace throughout, was bumped in tight along the rail nearing the sixteenth pole and lacked a rally.

WILD WILD KINGDOM stalked the pace off the rail, came three deep into the stretch, bid outside the pacesetter to gain the lead in the stretch and drew clear under left handed urging. DUKE OF FALLBROOK between horses stalking the pace on the backstretch and turn, came three deep into the stretch and gained the place late. STREET ZOMBIE stalked four wide to the stretch, drifted in some in upper stretch, split rivals in deep stretch and was edged for the place. HE'S OUT TO SEA sent between horses to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail then inside, fought back in midstretch, could not match the winner in the final sixteenth and was edged for a minor award late. IRON CURTAIN broke inward and a bit slowly, saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and also was edged for a minor share. ROYAL SEEKER bumped at the start, settled off the rail, chased outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. POSITIVE NUMBERS dropped back off the rail then a bit off the fence on the turn, came out in the stretch and was not a threat. IMAGINEIAMFASTEST bumped then bobbled at the break, stalked a bit off the rail then inside on the turn and in the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. LION COMMAND broke slowly, settled off the rail then a bit off the fence, angled to the inside on the turn and did not rally. CAPTAIN N. BARRON chased between horses on the backstretch and turn, continued outside a rival into the stretch and weakened. E BRADLEY COOPER close up stalking the pace outside a rival to the stretch, dropped back in the lane and had little left for the drive.

LUCKY STUDENT sped to the early lead, angled in and set all the pace a bit off the rail and drew off in the stretch under a steady hand ride and a hold late. CHRISTY JACKSON veered out at the start, chased outside then four wide into and on the turn and into the stretch and gained the place. ADIOS CALI hopped a bit at the start, stalked between horses then three deep on the turn and into the stretch and held third. SHE'SLUCKYTHATWAY chased outside then between horses leaving the backstretch, angled to the inside into the stretch and was edged for the show. LOOKINFORADANGER saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and lacked the necessary response. ROCKANTHAROS broke slowly and awkwardly, settled off the rail, came four wide into the stretch and improved position. TUSCANY BEAUTY close up stalking the pace between horses on the backstretch and turn, weakened in the drive. MAJESTIC DIVA chased a bit off the rail, went outside a rival on the turn, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. PEAKED stalked four wide, dropped back off the rail on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and weakened. RCATCANSCAT chased off the rail then a bit off the fence on the turn and lacked a response in the drive. NAZARETH chased off the rail then outside a rival into the turn, dropped back in the stretch and weakened. HAND TIMED.

ANGEL ALESSANDRA chased outside a rival then a bit off the rail on the second turn, swung three deep into the stretch and rallied under urging to gain the lead four wide in deep stretch and proved best. HYDE PARK CORNER (IRE) saved ground stalking the pace, bid inside on the second turn to gain the lead a quarter mile out, fought back along the rail in the stretch but could not hold off the winner. NOBLE CONTESSA had speed outside a rival then inched away into the first turn, set the pace inside then a bit off the rail, battled inside a foe leaving the backstretch and outside the runner-up leaving the second turn, fought back between foes in the stretch and held third. BARBADOLLA stalked inside then a bit off the rail, bid outside the pacesetter on the backstretch, stalked again leaving the second turn, re-bid three deep into and through the stretch and was outfinished. ASK THE CUSTOMER angled in and stalked inside then a bit off the rail, found the fence again on the second turn, came out some into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. IMPERIAL CREED saved ground chasing the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. MARRAZANO chased outside a rival, continued three deep on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and weakened. FRIARS WALK (IRE) broke a bit slowly, angled in and settled outside a rival then inside on the second turn and weakened. MISS DIALED chased off the rail then angled in and saved ground, dropped back into and on the second turn, drifted out while being pulled up into the stretch and walked off.

WATCH ME BURN sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, opened up on the turn and drew off in the stretch under some urging, steady handling and a long hold late. BEA'S BOY stalked four wide then outside on the turn and three deep into the stretch and gained the place. BABY FRANKIE saved ground stalking the pace throughout and edged a rival for the show. SWING THOUGHTS close up stalking the winner a bit off the rail to the stretch and was edged for third. GRAB THE MUNNY chased between horses then a bit off the rail leaving the backstretch and inside on the turn, came out in the stretch and lacked a rally. AT THE MARGIN bumped at the start, stalked between horses then a bit off the rail on the turn and gave way. BIG IMPRESSION also bumped at the start, also stalked between foes, dropped back off the rail on the turn and gave way.

CORDIALITY angled in and stalked off the rail, bid outside the pacesetter on the second turn, took the lead in upper stretch and won clear under urging. QUEEN BEE TO YOU pulled her way along inside early, saved ground stalking the pace, came out leaving the second turn and again into the stretch and gained the place. CHEEKABOO between foes early, chased a bit off the rail then outside a rival on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and edged a foe for the show. PRINCESS ROI sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, fought back on the second turn and to midstretch and was edged late for third. SHEHASTHERITESTUFF broke a bit slowly, chased just off the rail then inside into the second turn, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. HOW ABOUT ZERO stumbled at the start, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and could not summon the necessary late response. HOW UNUSUAL settled inside, went around a rival on the second turn, continued a bit off the rail into the stretch and did not rally. MOONLESS SKY three deep early, stalked outside a rival, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked a response in the drive. LYNNE'S LEGACY settled off the pace inside, dropped back on the backstretch, continued inside on the second turn and into the stretch and failed to menace.

SECRET MANEUVER stalked a bit off the rail, came out leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch, bid outside the runner-up in the drive, gained the lead past the eighth pole and inched away late under left handed urging. STAYTHIRSTYMYAMIGO had good early speed and dueled inside, took the lead on the turn, inched away into the stretch, fought back inside the winner in the drive, could not match that one late but held second. TWITTERATI broke a bit slowly, chased just off the rail then inside on the turn, came out and was in tight off heels approaching the furlong marker, got out and just held third. DISCO TALE stalked off the rail then outside a rival on the turn, split horses leaving the turn then angled in, came out for room and was in tight off heels nearing the eighth pole as the rider lost the whip, then was edged for the show. PARTY ALL NIGHT chased off the rail then three deep leaving the backstretch and into the turn, angled in some leaving the turn and lacked a rally. EASY PEASY broke a bit slowly, settled inside, came out on the turn and again into the stretch and improved position. PORTAL CREEK pressed the pace four wide then stalked outside on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and weakened. LUCILLE dueled three deep between horses then stalked between foes or off the rail on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and also weakened. JACKIE STAR a bit slow to begin, was between horses early then angled in and saved ground to no avail. ROMOLINA hopped slightly at the start, had good early speed and angled in, dueled between horses then outside the runner-up on the turn and weakened in the drive.