Horse racing newsletter: Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings are here

Hello, my name is John Cherwa, and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get ready for a big weekend at Santa Anita.

Jon White’s Kentucky Derby Top 10

Time for the good stuff. As always, we’re lucky to have top expert Jon White take a look at what’s happening on the Kentucky Derby trail. Jon makes the morning line at Santa Anita, he’s a licensed steward, and he’s the pre-eminent historian on racing. We’re lucky to have him. So, here’s his Kentucky Derby rankings, brought courtesy of Xpressbet.com.

“Santa Anita’s San Felipe Stakes, which will be Saturday at 1 1/16 miles, is headed by the Bob Baffert-trained undefeated colts Thousand Words and Authentic.

“The San Felipe has 50-20-10-5 points up for grabs toward a starting berth in the $3 million Kentucky Derby on May 3 at Churchill Downs. Since the introduction of the points system in 2013, it has taken an average of 26 to make the Kentucky Derby field of 20.

“Seven are entered in the San Felipe. The quality of this race is reflected by having four horses on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week -- Thousand Words (No. 3), Honor A.P. (No. 4), Authentic (No. 5) and Storm the Court (No. 10).

“Storm the Court has 22 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, Thousand Words has 20 and Authentic has 10.

“Ete Indien, a resounding winner in last Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, currently boasts the most Kentucky Derby points with 54.

“Authentic is two for two. Thousand Words is three for three. I have made Authentic the 6-5 morning-line favorite. Thousand Words is a close second choice at 9-5.

“In Authentic’s 2020 debut, he won Santa Anita’s 1 1/16-mile Sham Stakes by nearly eight lengths. He did not run a straight course when far in front during the stretch run while racing greenly. He has not exhibited any such behavior in his workouts since the Sham. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt reportedly will race with earplugs in the San Felipe.

“Thousand Words, who had a sharp (especially by his standards) five-furlong workout in :59.80 at Santa Anita on Monday, is a two-time graded stakes winner. The $1 million yearling purchase took the 1 1/16-mile Los Alamitos Futurity last year and Santa Anita’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes at the same distance this year on Feb. 1.

“Authentic and Thousand Words are just two of a powerful ‘Baffert brigade’ of Kentucky Derby candidates. In addition to Authentic and Thousand Words, Baffert trains:

“--Nadal. No. 2 on my rankings, he is headed to the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 14.

“--Charlatan. No. 7 on my Top 10, he was a sensational winner against maidens when unleashed at Santa Anita on Feb. 16.

“--Eight Rings. He had a dandy six-furlong workout from the gate in 1:11.80 at Santa Anita on Wednesday to signal he is close to a return to the races. He has not raced since finishing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita last Nov. 1 after winning Santa Anita’s American Pharoah Stakes by six lengths on Sept. 27.

“--Azul Coast. After finishing a distant second to Authentic in the Sham, Azul Coast won the 1 1/8-mile El Camino Real Derby on a synthetic surface Feb. 15 at Golden Gate Fields.

“Highly regarded Honor A.P., a grandson of the recently deceased 1992 Horse of the Year and marvelous sire A.P. Indy, goes into the San Felipe off a layoff. A Kentucky-bred son of Court Vision, A.P. Indy has not started since a sparkling 5 1/4-length maiden victory at Santa Anita last Oct. 13. Honor A.P.’s trainer is John Sherriffs, who won the 2005 Kentucky Derby in a 50-1 shocker with Giacomo.

“Mike Smith received an 11-day suspension and $210,000 fine for rule violations when riding in Saudi Arabia last week. Smith served one of the 11 suspension days by not riding Friday. He has been given the okay to ride Saturday at Santa Anita, including Honor A.P. in the San Felipe. Smith, according to Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen, faces an uncertain riding schedule in March while awaiting clarification of the 11-day suspension issued in Saudi Arabia. Andersen reported it is not clear when the Hall of Famer’s ‘remaining days would be served, and whether Smith would be eligible to ride designated races, often graded stakes, during the suspension.’

“Storm the Court was voted a 2019 Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita last Nov. 1 in a 45-1 upset. Trained by Peter Eurton, the Kentucky-bred Court Vision colt finished fourth in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 9. With the Storm the Court’s 2020 debut under his belt, he certainly is eligible to build on that effort in the San Felipe. He indicated he might do just that with an excellent workout last Saturday at Santa Anita, five furlongs in :59.40, fastest of 61 works at the distance that morning.

“Flavien Prat has ridden Thousand Words in all three of his races and Storm the Court in all five of his races. With Prat opting to stick with Thousand Words on Saturday, it opened the door for Joel Rosario to ride Storm the Court.

“The San Felipe is one of three races Saturday offering points toward the Kentucky Derby. The one-mile Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs will each reward the first four finishers with 50-20-10-5 points. Eleven are entered in the Gotham. The Tampa Bay Derby has attracted a field of 12.

“Mischevious Alex is the 3-1 favorite on David Aragona’s Gotham morning line. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt won the seven-furlong Swale Stakes with authority by seven lengths at Gulfstream on Feb. 1. John Servis, who trains Mischevious Alex, won the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes with Smarty Jones.

“Chance It and Sole Volante meet again in the Tampa Bay Derby. When Sole Volante won Gulfstream’s one-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes on Jan. 4, Sole Volante finished third. Chance It defeated Sole Volante by 2 1/4 lengths in their Jan. 4 encounter.

“Sole Volante then won the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis Stakes going away by 2 1/2 lengths after being as far back as 15 lengths early at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 8.

“John Rose has pegged Sole Volante as the 2-1 favorite on the Tampa Bay Derby morning line, with Chance It listed at 5-2.

“I think a couple of dangerous horses in the Tampa Bay Derby are Market Analysis at 8-1 and Spa City at 10-1. The recent maiden winners both appear to have much upside.

“Saffie Joseph Jr. trains Chance It. After Chance It drew the outside post position for last Saturday’s Fountain of Youth, the Florida-bred Currency Swap colt was withdrawn and redirected to the Tampa Bay Derby. This will be Chance It’s first race away from Gulfstream Park. He has won four of six lifetime starts.

“Patrick Biancone conditions Sole Volante. A Kentucky-bred Karakontie colt, Sole Volante has posted three wins in four career starts.

“Biancone also trains Ete Indien. The Kentucky-bred Summer Front colt debuts on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week at No. 6 following his smashing 8 1/2-length win in the Fountain of Youth.

“Tiz the Law, who tops my Top 10, was flattered by Ete Indien’s Fountain of Youth victory. That’s because when Tiz the Law won Gulfstream’s 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 1, Ete Indien finished second.

“Dennis’ Moment drops off my Top 10 this week after he finished last in the Fountain of Youth. Sent away as the 13-10 favorite, he wound up 10th, 25 1/4 lengths behind Ete Indien. This dismal performance by Dennis’ Moment in his first start as a 3-year-old follows his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile debacle in his final start as a 2-year-old when he stumbled badly at the start and lost by 21 1/4 lengths s the 9-10 favorite.

“No. 8 on my Top 10 again this week is Maxfield. I am not taking him off until his trainer, Brendan Walsh, says the Kentucky-bred Street Sense definitely is not being considered for the Kentucky Derby.’

“Maxfield has not raced since he won the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Futurity by 5 1/2 lengths at Keeneland last Oct. 5. He was scratched from the Nov. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when all was not well, then underwent surgery on Nov. 18 in Kentucky when he reportedly had a mildly displaced chip from an ankle removed.

“Last Sunday at Palm Meadows training center in Florida, Maxfield had a sparking four-furlong workout in :48.40. It was the fastest of 41 works at that distance there that morning. It was Maxfield’s third recorded workout this year.

“Indications are that if a decision is made to try and have Maxfield accumulate Kentucky Derby points, he likely would run in Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on April 4. The first four finishers in the Blue Grass will earn points toward the Kentucky Derby on a 100-40-20-10 scale. If it is deemed there just is not enough time for Maxfield to make the Run for the Roses, Walsh has said skipping the first leg of the Triple Crown in favor of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on May 16 is also on the table.

“Here are this week’s Kentucky Derby rankings, courtesy of Xpressbet:

1. Tiz the Law (1)

2. Nadal (2)

3. Thousand Words (3)

4. Honor A.P. (5)

5. Authentic (6)

6. Ete Indien (NR)

7. Charlatan (7)

8. Maxfield (8)

9. Sole Volante (9)

10. Storm the Court (10)

NOTE: Last week’s rankings in parentheses”

Santa Anita preview

Friday’s card starts a big weekend at Santa Anita and from the early look at things, you wouldn’t know there was a horse shortage at the track. Friday there are eight races, starting at 1 p.m. There are three turf races. The feature is probably the 10^th because it’s the only one of three $57,000 allowance/optional claimers that isn’t restricted to Cal-breds, whose purses are inflated.

The favorite, at 9-2, is Hoffa’s Union for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Flavien Prat. He has won one-of-five starts. He has raced at Laurel, Aqueduct, Churchill Downs, Woodbine and Ellis Park. Lambeau is the 5-1 second choice for John Shirreffs and Victor Espinoza. He has won one of his three starts and is coming off a third in an allowance.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8 (1 also eligible), 14, 7, 6, 9 (3 ae), 8, 9 (1 ae), 10.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE ONE: No. 2 Jen Go Unchained (12-1)

Jen Go Unchained won last out on Jan. 19th and was claimed by Rafael Becerra who is 17% from his small stable at the meet. He is also 22% off the bench and 39% in the money for a profit. Win jockey Agapito Delgadillo rides through the claim with the horse racing protected Friday. They try turf again after a diet of dirt races with the mom having two-of-six turf winners. A bullet work on Feb. 8 followed by two maintenance works tells me this horse is ready at a great 12-1 price. Jen has the top back speed in this race and will likely be overlooked by punters. I place this horse on top in this race.

Sunday’s result: Stir the Pot blasted to the front putting in a 22 second ¼ and led into deep stretch before getting caught on the line to run second. Pot was bet down to 5-1, not the 12-1 value I was looking for. Pot paid $5.80 for the place.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Golden Gate weekend preview

Here’s our weekly look at the best racing going on at Golden Gate Fields. We’re delighted to have race caller and all-around good guy Matt Dinerman as our host for previews and other musings. So, take it away, Matt.

“There are three more live racing days this week with a 1:15 p.m. post on Friday and 12:45 p.m. on the weekend. Our co-feature on Friday is a second-level allowance route. Old pro Arch Prince has thoroughly enjoyed 2020 and appears to be the one to beat. The Sammy Calvario trained 6-year-old gelding has won two-of-three starts this year, both at the second-level allowance level. His lone loss was a fourth-place finish behind next out Grade 2-placed racer Camino Del Paraiso.

“One interesting challenger to Arch Prince is Kiwi’s Dream, a Victor Trujillo trainee who wheels back in just two weeks after a four-place finish sprinting at Santa Anita. That afternoon, he ran against a salty group of allowance horses. He makes his career debut going two turns in this spot and gets leading Golden Gate jockey Juan Hernandez.

“Also, Mithqaal makes his second start off a 7 ½-month layoff for leading trainer Jonathan Wong after a fifth-place finish to kick off his 2020 campaign. The fifth race, a first-level allowance for 3-year-old fillies, attracts Southern California maiden special weight winner She’s So Special and romping two-back allowance winner I’m A Rockette.

“There are 10 races on Saturday with the co-feature going as the eighth, a first-level allowance race for 3-year-olds going a mile. Ajourneytofreedom, Final Final, Mysterious Stones and Wine and Whisky, all in last month’s El Camino Real Derby, face newcomers Awesome Summer, Cajun Bettor, Call Me Peppy and Prince de Prince.

“Wine and Whisky finished fourth in the El Camino Real Derby and has run two bang-up races since removing blinkers for trainer Felix Rondan. Ajourneytofreedom suffered traffic issues in the El Camino Real and could run a winning race with a better trip. Mysterious Stones performed poorly in the El Camino Real but beat Ajourneytofreedom two races ago at this condition. Final Final has finished well behind in his last two starts. Awesome Summer may be the colt with the most appeal who enters the race as a new participant to the first-level allowance route level for 3-year-olds. He’s well regarded and was a super impressive one-mile maiden special weight winner on March 7. The Bob Hess Sr. trainee has worked once since the maiden breaker and has Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux.

“Another interesting race in Saturday is the 10^th, the second leg of the Golden Hour Double. In a field of 10, Southern California shippers Liberal and Cono come in for trainers Paddy Gallagher and Michael McCarthy and will likely get bet. Although the former has not raced since a visually impressive maiden win over this track in May, he is a first-time gelding from an outfit that succeeds when shipping runners to Golden Gate. The latter, a recent runner up finished behind sharpie Ernie Banks, won at this level over this track three races ago.”

Los Alamitos weekend preview

It’s time to turn things over to marketing and meda guru Orlando Gutierrez, who will tell us about things going on at Los Alamitos. Orlando, the floor is yours.

“At the age of 8, Jess A Cowboy will make his 2020 debut and 40th career start when he leads a strong group of seven older horses in the $12,100 seventh at 350 yards on Friday at Los Alamitos.

“He has not raced since winning the John Ward Handicap on October 26, three weeks after scoring a daylight victory in the Blane Schvaneveldt Handicap on Oct. 4. Having posted very comfortable margins of victories in those two stakes races, he should be ready to roll after such a light schedule during the past four months. He did post a pair of turn-and-works, first a 220-yard :12.90 drill in mid-December and then a 350-yard tightener which he covered in :18.50 on Feb. 20. Oscar Andrade, Jr. will ride him from the one for trainer Matt Fales. First post on Friday is 6 p.m.

“AQHA champion 2-year-old filly Cartel Jess Rockin and (G1) Ed Burke Million Futurity runner-up Dreams Divine are among the 22 entered in Saturday’s trials to the nation’s richest race for 3-year-old fillies, the $403,500 Los Alamitos Oaks.

“Three trials will be run at 400 yards with the 10 fastest times advancing to the lucrative Oaks final on March 28. The Oaks was formerly the (G3) La Primera Del Año Derby, but the new version will feature about double the purse money of the La Primera with the 2021 version expected to have an even richer $500,000 purse.

“The opening Oaks trials will feature a tremendous encounter between Cartel Jess Rockin and Dreams Divine. Cartel Jess Rockin won the $1.9 million Los Alamitos Two Million Futurity on Dec. 15 on the way to being named the nation’s top 2-year-old filly last year. Dreams Divine was the top 2-year-old filly during the first half of 2019, as she finished second by a nose in the Ed Burke and was third in the (G2) Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity. She’ll enter this trial after an easy half-length victory in the AB What A Runner Handicap on Jan. 25. Oscar Peinado will ride Dreams Divine for trainer Mike Robbins, while Juan Pablo Leon is back aboard Cartel Jess Rockin, who will look to make amends after a very troubled 10th in the (G1) Los Alamitos Winter Derby on Feb. 8.

“Grade 1 winners Tell Cartel and Flokie plus Grade 2 winner Sass Go Blue are among the 27 sophomores that will race in the trials to the $213,300 El Primero Del Año Derby on Sunday. There are four trials with the 10 fastest times advancing to the El Primero final on March 29.

“Tell Cartel will head the second heat after dominating the (G1) $190,550 Los Alamitos Winter Derby on Feb. 8 when winning the 400-yard event at 17-1 odds. The colt by Favorite Cartel is not the fastest out of the gate, but he has a wicked finishing kick and three solid performances at this distance. He also finished second to Sass Go Blue in the (G2) PCQHRA Breeders Futurity last year. Ruben Lozano will ride him for trainer Matt Fales from the five.

“Sass Go Blue will run in the opening trial after finishing fourth in the Winter Derby final. The gelding ran evenly in that event and is a top choice in this trial. Lindolfo Diaz has picked up the training duties on Sass Go Blue as well as Flokie, the winner of the Ed Burke Million last June. Flokie will make his sophomore debut in the third trial. He finished third in the (G1) Los Alamitos Two Million Futurity. Jesus Rios Ayala will ride Flokie from the five. You Can Run, who finished second in the Winter Derby final, is the marquee name in the final trial.”

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE SEVEN: No. 3 Alamode (7/2)

Trainer John Cooper and jockey Juan Pablo Leon have formed a top-notch jockey/trainer combo (28%) and have done well with this (3-2-0-1) good looking gray. While this runner has hit the board in six straight outings, he was a tad rambunctious before breaking almost a length slow in most recent start. He finished well under only light urging to land the underneath exacta spot. Faces a salty group Friday, but fits in nicely and has the quickness to perform well at a medium mutual price.

Now, the star of the show, Friday’s entries.