Horse racing newsletter: A big day at Santa Anita

Hello, my name is John Cherwa, and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as regular contributors Ron Flatter and Rob Henie give you betting suggestions.

It’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network. He offers up some advice about the next round of Kentucky Derby Future Wagers. Ron, what insights do you have?

“Despite having only 23 horses listed eight weeks before the race, could this weekend’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager actually yield some overlays?

“Dare to dream, but if the morning line holds any sway, 11 of the 23 individual horses listed in Pool 3 of the Churchill Downs pari-mutuels are projected to have longer odds than they carry right now in the fixed-odds futures at William Hill Nevada.

“At 8-1, even the consensus favorite Tiz The Law carries a longer morning line than his 6-1 live odds at William Hill.

“Saturday’s Derby preps will go a long way to determining the closing odds when the pool closes at 3 p.m. PDT Sunday. But if the morning line this month is as accurate as it was for last month’s second pool, there may be some genuine value available to bettors who have access to the KDFW.

“This is especially true of Saturday’s field for the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. There may not be a Derby overlay on the race’s 6-5 morning-line favorite Authentic (12-1 KDFW, 12-1 William Hill). But the price might be right for Thousand Words (15-1, 10-1), Honor A.P. (20-1, 12-1) and Storm The Court (30-1, 25-1). Making the rash presumption that there will not be a four-way dead heat, there may be a likelihood of favorable odds for the horses that lose, especially since public bettors tend to fade the also-rans as if preps were quarterfinal eliminators.

“The trend does not follow, though, in Saturday’s other two points preps. In the Tampa Bay Derby, 2-1 morning-line favorite Sole Volante (12-1, 12-1) bears no real value in the KDFW, 5-2 second choice Chance It (30-1, 20-1) does, and 10-1 long shot Spa City (50-1, 100-1) already looks like a pari-mutuel underlay. The Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct does not have any horses among the individual choices in the KDFW.

“The situation is murkier for the Kentucky Oaks, which gets the futures treatment from Churchill Downs only this weekend. Since no Nevada book currently offers fixed-odds Oaks prices, the value comparison is with off-shore and overseas pools that offer a scant 23 choices – and not the same 23 as Churchill. By contrast, William Hill and foreign books list a combined 188 Derby hopefuls.

“After Bast was retired and Taraz was euthanized, Richard Baltas’ Las Virgenes winner Venetian Harbor (8-1 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager morning line, 11-2 global) became the consensus Oaks favorite. She is not expected to race again before the Santa Anita Oaks on April 4, so the futures needle may not move much on her this weekend.

“Six of the 23 individual KOFW options will race in Saturday’s points preps – the Busher Invitational at Aqueduct and the Honeybee at Oaklawn Park – but the attractiveness of their odds is not clear. Lake Avenue (15-1, 15-1), the even-money favorite in the Busher, and Maedean (30-1, 25-1), the 5-2 second choice, are this weekend’s only two fillies that are available for a price comparison between the Churchill and global markets.

“Since William Hill’s racing oddsmakers seldom tip their hand in public, it is not clear whether they will add Oaks futures to their menu before May. To the contrary, rival bookmakers say that William Hill’s Derby futures may have to be shut down if Churchill Downs ever ends its contractual impasse with Nevada racebooks. That dispute is keeping horseplayers in the state from betting on this weekend’s KDFW and KOFW.

“The landscapes of the roads to the Oaks and Derby will change a great deal between now and the final preps next month, so now may be the last time to find genuinely attractive prices before the races are run May 1 and 2. Overlays may be easier to identify with the Derby futures than the Oaks, but with no guarantee that any horse gets to the gate for either race at Churchill Downs, early-betting decisions are difficult.

“Oh, one more thing. I frequently post charts comparing the futures between Churchill, William Hill and the global markets. You may find them on my Twitter timeline @ronflatter.”

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. The current episode of the Ron Flatter Racing Pod includes a preview of Saturday’s Kentucky Derby preps at Aqueduct, Tampa Bay Downs and Santa Anita. Trainer Linda Rice talks about her Derby hopes with First Deputy and Montauk Traffic in the Gotham Stakes and her Wood Memorial horse Max Player. Sports writer Mark Whicker of the Southern California News Group discusses racing’s place on the southern California sports landscape and Santa Anita’s response to last year’s equine-death crisis. To listen to the RFRP, just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the ninth race at Santa Anita and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“This is an optional claimer at a mile on the turf. Optional claimers are interesting. Those putting their runners up for sale in an optional claimer, are either looking to get claimed, simply wanting to get off the horse, either losing money and calling it a day, or in personal need of the cash. Either way, we rarely back runners who are up for the claim price. This particular heat is different, none of the runners are eligible to be claimed, so all connections are happy and/or still holding out hope that their runners are worthy of stringing along. Top selection here would be ABSOLUTELY PERFECT (#11). She strings races together off the brief layoff, usually a good thing with regard to Dan Blacker, who prefers to give his runners a race before asking for more. Notice last time out, she raced close up before fading, getting her own personal half mile split in :46.2, but always remember, horses are a bit more high strung when returning off a layoff. We’ll expect Drayden Van Dyke will be able to ration out her speed in a more effective matter early, leaving a bit more in the tank late, with two strong drills the past few weeks, aiding her cause. SHE’S OUR CHARM (#1) is also stringing races together, only the second time in her career she’s done so, trained by hall of fame trainer Ron McAnally (along with his wife), and he’s another one who throughout his career, likes to have a horse ready in their second start off a layoff, and that included the great Bayakoa who lost by double digits in her first U.S. start at Hollywood Park, before returning just weeks later to crush a field at Del Mar. This filly has some ability, and though he doesn’t have many horses anymore, you can bet he’s super in tune with this one’s needs. We also love the work pattern, with the recent slow drill actually a good sign telling us they needed nothing from her while awaiting this next start.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 11-1-12

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 4,7

“Positive Notes:

“12 Peter’s Kitten - Rosario riding first call for Sadler right now, and this one fits well class wise, also liking this distance despite her 0 for 6 record going a mile (four seconds).

“Negative Notes:

“4 Heathers Grey - Gryder going long on the sod does nothing for us.

“7 Silken Sky - Placement is silly, and the fact Smith rides, is even more puzzling?

“TOP PICK: ABSOLUTELY PERFECT (#11 12-1 Van Dyke) $ Selected Win Wager

“SECOND CHOICE: SHE’S OUR CHARM (#1 12-1 Sanchez) $ Selected Win Wager”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at http://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

Friday’s feature was one of three allowance/optional claimers, but this one was not restricted to Cal-breds. It was 1 1/16 miles on the dirt and finished with a blanket finish as Synthesis won by a nose.

Synthesis, who ran in last year’s Santa Anita Derby, paid $13.60, $6.00 and $3.60 for trainer George Papaprodromou and jockey Rafael Bejarano, who announced he is moving his tack to Kentucky next month. Lambeau was second and Dreams of Valor finished third.

“We bought this horse wit the idea to try and run him in the [Kentucky] Derby,” Papaprodromou told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “Maybe we did too much with him. I don’t know but maybe he needed time off [after a seventh in an allowance at Del Mar on Aug. 18]. He came back refreshed and he’s put on some weight. He’s a big striding horse and I told Rafael, ‘You can’t take too much hold of him. Let him do his thing.’”

Santa Anita preview

Before we get to previewing Santa Anita’s blockbuster Saturday card, it should be noted that Condition Book No. 5 is out for racing between March 20 and April 5 and there is no Thursday racing. So, by my count, that’s 10 days that have been canceled. The track is required to cancel at least 12. As we’ve said before, we’ll take the Over on that number.

OK, on to Saturday’s card. There are 11 ½ races starting at a very early 11:30 a.m. Yes, technically, there are 12 but amid a card of full robust fields, the sixth race has four 3-year-old fillies going 6 ½ furlongs. Not sure where that one came from but it wasn’t in the condition book.

Still, the racing office seems to have really picked things up since Chris Merz came in from Maryland to be the Racing Director. This weekend has had some of the old Santa Anita-size races. Let’s get on to the stakes races.

Grade 2 $200,000 San Carlos Stakes. This is a seven-furlong race for horses 3 and up. The favorite, at 8-5, is Flagstaff, a lightly raced 6-year-old gelding for trainer John Sadler and jockey Victor Espinoza. Flagstaff has won four of his 10 races, finished second three times and third on two occasions. He was second in the Grade 2 Palos Verdes last out, but has mostly been running at the allowance level.

The second favorite is Roadster for Bob Baffert and Mike Smith at 5-2. Roadster was one on the “A” Kentucky Derby list for Baffert after winning the Santa Anita Derby but then finished 16^th (placed 15^th) in the Kentucky Derby. He hasn’t won since the Santa Anita Derby and was seventh last out in San Pasqual. Post is around 1 p.m.

Grade 1 $400,000 Frank E. Kilroe Mile. Shipper Got Stormy is the 5-2 favorite in this one mile turf race. She has won eight-of-19 lifetime and won the Grade 1 Matriarch at Del Mar two back. Tyler Gaffalione is coming in to ride this Mark Casse-trained mare. She was second in the Breeders’ Cup Mile to Uni.

River Boyne is the second choice for Jeff Mullins and Abel Cedillo. She won last out in the Grade 3 Thunder Road at Santa Anita. He has won eight-of-23 lifetime. Post is around 1:30 p.m. for the 10-horse field.

$75,000 China Doll Stakes: This is an ungraded stakes for 3-year-olds going a mile on the turf. Won’t spend much time on this. Stela Star is the 7-2 favorite for John Sadler and Joel Rosario. Warren’s Showtime is the second choice at 4-1 for Craig Lewis and Jorge Velez. Post is around 2:30 p.m.

Grade 2 $400,000 San Felipe Stakes: This 1 1/16-mile race for 3-year-olds wasn’t held last year because Santa Anita had closed down after a spike in horse fatalities. It forced trainers to go to the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, where they had two divisions of the race. The top two horses are trained by Baffert. Authentic, at 6-5, will be ridden by Drayden Van Dyke and Thousand Words, at 9-5, will have Flavien Prat aboard.

Both are undefeated and on many Top 10 Derby lists. Also in the field, at 5-1, is Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and Eclipse Award 2-year-old male champion. Prat got off Storm the Court to ride Thousand Words. For more on this race, and especially what Baffert is thinking, check out this story I did for web and print. Just click here. Post is around 3 p.m.

Grade 1 $600,000 Santa Anita Handicap: Once the premier race of this meeting, this 1 ¼-mile contest has suffered as races in Dubai, and now Saudi Arabia, have taken all the older horse for a lot more purse money.

The favorite, at 6-5, is last year’s winner Gift Box for Sadler and Rosario. He’s coming off a win in the San Antonio, a race he also won the previous year. He has three wins in five starts since moving to the Sadler barn. If Gift Box wins it will be the third straight Big ‘Cap win for Sadler. He won with Accelerate two years ago.

Midcourt is the 2-1 second choice for John Shirreffs and Victor Espinoza. He’s coming off a win in the Grade 2 San Pasqual. He has spent his entire nine-race career in Southern California. Post is around 4 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 10, 9, 12 (2 also eligible), 6, 10, 4, 14, 7, 12 (2 ae), 8, 12, 9.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE FIVE: No. 9 Sash (30-1)

Sash makes the third start off the layoff and off shipping to the ‘States for trainer Mark Glatt. In the U.S. debut the horse weakened in a Grace 2 in December, the first start in two months. In January we saw what the horse could do winning after stalking the pace. Although Saturday is a jump in class, Sash actually raced very well at the top tracks in the UK so despite the 30-1 morning line this horse has a big chance. Glatt is 23% third off the layoff, 20% winner last race and 18% in stakes races. His in the money percentages are off the charts at 50% across multiple categories. Two sharp works in a row and this giant price is too good of a value to ignore. Spread for prices in this race and be sure to include Next Shares in your bets too. This race tends to be a value players dream with horses over 5-1 winning 54%, with 19% of those over 10-1.

Friday’s result: Jen Go Unchained broke nicely and tracked in third into the stretch. She looked ready to rumble down the inside but had nothing.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

12:55 Tampa Bay (8): Grade 3 $100,000 Challenger Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: King for a Day (2-1)

1:00 Santa Anita (4): Grade 2 $200,000 San Carlos Stakes, 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Flagstaff (8-5)

1:18 Aqueduct (7): $125,000 Stymie Stakes, 4 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Wicked Trick (5-2)

1:25 Tampa Bay (9): Grade 2 $225,000 Hillsborough Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Starship Jubilee (2-1)

1:30 Santa Anita (5): Grade 1 $400,000 Frank E. Kilroe Mile, 4 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Got Stormy (5-2)

1:46 Aqueduct (8): Grade 3 $200,000 Tom Fool Handicap, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Mind Control (7-5)

1:55 Tampa Bay (10): Grade 3 $200,000 Florida Oaks, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Walk In Marrakesh (3-1)

2:14 Aqueduct (9): $250,000 Busher Invitational, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Favorite: Lake Avenue (1-1)

2:32 Tampa Bay (11): Grade 2 $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Sole Volante (2-1)

2:38 Oaklawn (8): $150,000 Hot Springs Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Whitmore (9-5)

2:42 Aqueduct (10): Grade 3 $300,000 Gotham Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile. Favorite: Mischevious Alex (3-1)

3:01 Santa Anita (8): Grade 2 $400,000 San Felipe Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Authentic (6-5)

3:09 Oaklawn (9): Grade 3 $300,000 Honeybee Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Motu (3-1)

4:03 Santa Anita (10): Grade 1 $600,000 Santa Anita Handicap, 4 and up, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: Gift Box (6-5)

Chris Wade’s LA Pick of the Day

RACE TWO: No. 5 Mr Bingley (9-2)

He is a very consistent runner who has many a figure on his docket that are encouraging when compared to others in this field. The recently claimed runner will also make his first start for a trainer with strong figures with a first-time starter after a claim (25%). In his most recent effort seven nights ago, the 4-year-old broke a tad slow and had a lot to do from the get-go. After the less than stellar getaway, this gelding lacked room around the turn and down the lane when behind two dueling leaders and had nowhere to go. The hard-knocking runner did finish fairly well late once some room opened up inside the 1/16th pole along the rail. With my top charting in tow along with an expected better journey tonight, we’ll push this bay to be close up early and in the mix throughout at a medium mutual price.

Now, the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.